原文标题：Labour marketsBoy cries wolfGenerative AI is not yet killing jobs劳动力市场男孩大喊“狼来了”生成式人工智能还没有扼杀工作岗位

White-collar workers are ever more numerous白领一族越来越多

(资料图片仅供参考)

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AFTER ASTONISHING breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap.

在人工智能取得惊人的突破后，许多人担心他们最终会成为经济废料堆（失业）。

Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (LLMs).

最近几个月，全球谷歌搜索 "我的工作安全吗？"的次数增加了一倍，因为人们担心会被大型语言模型取代。

Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming.

一些证据表明，大范围的破坏即将到来。

In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of OpenAI and colleagues say that “around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs”.

在最近的一篇论文中，OpenAI的泰娜·埃隆杜及其同事说，"由于大型语言模型的引入，大约80%的美国劳动力至少有10%的工作任务会受其影响。”

Another paper suggests that legal services, accountancy and travel agencies will face unprecedented upheaval.

另一篇论文表明，法律服务、会计和旅行社将面临前所未有的剧变。

[Paragraph 2]Economists, however, tend to enjoy making predictions about automation more than they enjoy testing them. 然而，经济学家更喜欢预测自动化的趋势，而不太愿意进行真实测试。In the early 2010s many of them loudly predicted that robots would kill jobs by the millions, only to fall silent when employment rates across the rich world rose to all-time highs. 在2010年代初，他们中的许多人大声预言，机器人将导致数百万个工作岗位消失，然而当发达国家的就业率创新高时，他们却沉默不语了。Few of the doom-mongershave a good explanation for why countries with the highest rates of tech usage around the globe, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, consistently have among the lowest rates of unemployment.对于为什么日本、新加坡和韩国等全球科技使用率最高的国家的失业率一直处于最低水平，很少有末日论者能给出很好的解释。[Paragraph 3]Here we introduce our first attempt at tracking AI’s impact on jobs. 在这里，我们介绍一下我们的首个追踪研究，即人工智能对就业的影响。Using American data on employment by occupation, we single out white-collar workers. These include people working in everything from back-office support and financial operations to copy-writers. 我们使用美国按职业分类的就业数据，并且把白领工人单独挑出来。其中包括各行各业的白领，如后勤支持，财务运营，文案撰写等等。White-collar roles are thought to be especially vulnerable to generative AI, which is becoming ever better at logical reasoning and creativity. 由于生成式AI在逻辑推理和创造力方面变得越来越好，人们担心白领职位最容易受其影响。[Paragraph 4]However, there is as yet little evidence of an AI hit to employment. 然而，目前还没有什么证据表明人工智能对就业造成冲击。In the spring of 2020 white-collar jobs rose as a share of the total, as many people in service occupations lost their job at the start of the covid-19 pandemic (see chart). 2020年春，白领职位占总职位的比例上升，因为在疫情开始时，许多从事服务行业的人失业了（见图）。The white-collar share is lower today, as leisure and hospitality have recovered. 如今随着休闲和酒店业的复苏，白领职位占比下降。Yet in the past year the share of employment in professions supposedly at risk from generative AI has risen by half a percentage point.然而，在过去的一年里，白领职位（据传受生成式AI威胁大）占比上升了半个百分点。

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It is, of course, early days. Few firms yet use generative-AI tools at scale, so the impact on jobs could merely be delayed.

当然，现在还处于早期阶段。很少有公司大规模使用生成式AI工具，所以它对就业的影响可能延迟了。

Another possibility, however, is that these new technologies will end up destroying only a small number of roles.

然而，另一种可能性是，这些新技术最终将只会使小部分岗位消失。

While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need. 虽然 AI 在某些任务上可能很高效，但在其他任务上可能不那么出色，比如管理和了解他人的需求。

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AI could even have a positive effect on jobs.

人工智能甚至可能对工作产生积极影响。

If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses toramp uphiring.

如果AI让员工变得更有效率，他们公司的利润就会增加，然后老板们就会增加招聘。

A recent survey by Experis, an IT-recruitment firm, points to this possibility.More than half of Britain’s employers expect AI technologies to have a positive impact on their headcount over the next two years, it finds.

IT招聘公司Experis最近的一项调查指出了这种可能性。它发现，一半以上的英国雇主预计AI技术在未来2年内会对他们的员工人数产生积极影响。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量481左右）原文出自：2023年6月17日《The Economist》Finance & economics版块

精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路

本文翻译整理: Irene

本文编辑校对: Irene仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络）Experis是万宝盛华ManpowerGroup的一部分，总部位于美国威斯康星州密尔沃基市，是一家全球领先的人力资源和就业解决方案提供商。Experis提供的服务包括人才招聘、人才咨询、员工培训、人才管理和灵活雇佣解决方案等。灵活雇佣解决方案包括合同工、临时工和远程工作等，以满足企业短期项目或季节性需求的人才需求。【重点句子】（3个）AFTER ASTONISHING breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap.在人工智能取得惊人的突破后，许多人担心他们最终会成为经济废料堆（失业）。While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need. 
虽然 AI 在某些任务上可能很高效，但在其他任务上可能不那么出色，比如管理和了解他人的需求。If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses to ramp up hiring.如果AI让工人变得更有效率，他们公司的利润就会增加，然后老板们就会增加招聘。